QUESTION
You have been writing about Artificial Intelligence since it became
popular. Most of us in my company only have a superficial understanding of AI.
As the Compliance Manager, I surveyed those who were using it. It turns out
that it’s only used in chats and searches. Meanwhile, our Board wants to
introduce it into our loan origination procedures.
Several companies are now pitching Senior Management and the Board regarding
their AI capabilities. Frankly, I see a massive training, monitoring, and auditing
future—and they have tasked me with writing a risk/benefit outline for using
AI. They plan to use my outline as a scorecard to vet potential AI partners.
To complicate matters, they want me to present the outline as a policy
statement they can adopt. From it, full policies and procedures are supposed to
be based on the policy statement. Overnight, I am supposed to be an expert in Artificial
Intelligence involving mortgage banking!
I need help drafting a risk/benefit outline and a policy statement.
What AI benefits and risks can be listed in the outline?
What elements constitute a policy statement about AI?
COMPLIANCE SOLUTION
Policies
and Procedures
ANSWER
Virtually since the inception of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) craze, I have been writing and speaking on its pros and cons. Here are some articles. Although I see numerous benefits, I also see numerous risks. Do the benefits outweigh the risks?
A new technology is
often unpredictable with respect to its consequences. Currently, self-driving
trucks are promoted as the future of delivery methods. As I write, about two
dozen states specifically allow driverless operations of vehicles, and another
16 states have no regulations at all specific to “autonomous vehicles.” Only
ten states place limits on autonomous vehicles.[i]
Now, let's hold the
self-driving trucks up to the light of the risks/benefits type thinking. I’m
sure there are plenty of benefits, as is the case with new technologies, but
the risks can be catastrophic in view of the fact that the livelihoods of human
truckers are at stake. Long-haul truckers are estimated to lose at least 500,000
jobs. That amounts to a financial catastrophe for their families. Add in the
maintenance and support staff, truck stop employees, and all their families,
and the overall consequence is devastating on nearly every level – except it
does provide benefits to the self-driving companies since their robotic trucks do
not need to feed their families, can be readily replaced, and can drive 24
hours a day, 7 days a week. Millions of lives are impacted adversely. So, you tell me, what are the foreseeable consequences
of new technology? Some consequences are “known-known.” The consequences of the
self-driving truck are a known-known.
Artificial intelligence
has a few known-known consequences, and I will mention some of them. However,
the vast area of the unknown consequences is not entirely apprehended at this
early stage of its implementation. When drafting the risk outline and policy
statement, I suggest you insert a proviso that the known-known is incomplete
and the unknown vastly overwhelms the known.
Regulators have
expressed concern about how we use AI, so you need to be aware of the measures to
take to ensure an understanding of its risks. I will provide a brief risk
outline in the context of a policy statement because they cannot
and should not be separate aspects of AI. Each policy statement must reflect a
company's size, products, services, complexity, risk profile, and business strategy. My generic synopsis is not and is not meant to be comprehensive.
RISK OUTLINE AND
POLICY STATEMENT
Flagging Unusual Transactions
AI may identify
potentially suspicious, anomalous, or outlier transactions (i.e., fraud
detection and financial crime monitoring). This involves using different forms
of data (i.e., emails and audio data – both structured[ii]
and unstructured) to identify fraud or anomalous transactions with greater
accuracy and timeliness. It also includes identifying transactions for the Bank
Secrecy Act’s Anti-Money Laundering investigations, monitoring employees for
improper practices, and detecting data anomalies.
Personalization of Customer Services
AI technologies,
such as voice recognition and Natural Language Processing (NLP),[iii] may
improve the customer experience and increase efficiency in allocating financial
institution resources. One example is using chatbots[iv]
to automate routine customer interactions, including account opening activities
and general customer inquiries. AI is leveraged at call centers to process and
triage customer calls to provide customized service. These technologies may be
implemented to target marketing efforts better.
Credit Decisions
AI may inform
credit decisions to enhance or supplement existing techniques. This application
of AI may use traditional data or employ alternative data[v]
(such as cash flow transactional information from a bank account).
Risk Management
AI may be used to
augment risk management and control practices. For instance, AI may provide
a resource to complement and provide a check on another, more traditional
credit model. It may also enhance credit monitoring (including through early
warning alerts), payment collections, loan restructuring and recovery, and loss
forecasting. AI can assist internal audit and independent risk management
functions to increase sample size (such as for testing), evaluate risk, and
refer higher-risk issues to human analysts. AI can be used in liquidity risk
management, for example, to enhance monitoring of market conditions or real
estate collateral management.
Textual Analysis
Textual analysis
refers to using NLP to handle unstructured data (generally text) and obtain
insights from that data or improve existing processes' efficiency. Applications
could include analysis of regulations, news flow, earnings reports, consumer
complaints, analyst rating changes, and legal documents.
Cybersecurity
AI may be able to
detect threats and malicious activity, reveal attackers, identify compromised
systems, and support threat mitigation. For instance, it could monitor
real-time investigation of potential attacks, use behavior-based detection to
collect network metadata, flag and block new ransomware and other malicious
attacks, identify compromised accounts and files involved in exfiltration, and
conduct deep forensic analysis of malicious files.
KNOWN RISKS
Several risks are
particular to AI: explainability, data usage, and dynamic updating. These are
the top three known risks.
Explainability
“Explainability”
refers to an AI approach using inputs to produce outputs.
Some AI approaches
can exhibit a “lack of explainability” for their overall functioning (sometimes
referred to as “global explainability”) or how they arrive at an individual
outcome in a given situation (sometimes referred to as “local explainability”).
Lack of explainability can pose different challenges in different contexts.
Lack of
explainability can also inhibit management's understanding of the conceptual
soundness of an AI approach (that is, the quality of the theory, design,
methodology, data, developmental testing, and confirmation that an approach strategy
is appropriate for the intended use) which can increase uncertainty around the
AI approach's reliability, and increase risk when used in new contexts.
And, importantly, lack
of explainability can also inhibit independent review and audit and make
compliance with laws and regulations, including consumer protection
requirements, more challenging.
Broader or More Intensive Data Usage
Data plays a
particularly important role in AI.
AI algorithms
identify patterns and correlations in training data without human context or
intervention and then use that information to generate predictions or
categorizations. Because the AI algorithm depends on the training data, an AI
system generally reflects dataset limitations. As a result, AI may perpetuate
or even amplify bias or inaccuracies inherent in the training data or make
incorrect predictions if that data set is incomplete or non-representative.
Dynamic Updating
Some AI approaches
can update on their own, sometimes without human interaction, often
known as “dynamic updating.”
Monitoring and
tracking an AI approach that evolves independently can present challenges in
review and validation, particularly when changes in external circumstances may
cause inputs to vary materially from the original training data. An example
would be changes relating to economic downturns and financial crises.
Dynamic updating
techniques can produce changes ranging from minor adjustments to existing model
elements to the introduction of entirely new elements.
POTENTIALS FOR AI
AI has the
potential to offer improved efficiency, enhanced performance, and cost
reduction, as well as benefits to customers. It can identify relationships
among variables that are not intuitive or not revealed by more traditional
techniques. Furthermore, it may also help to process certain forms of
information, such as text, that may be impractical or difficult to process
using conventional methods.
AI also facilitates
processing significantly large and detailed datasets, both structured and
unstructured, by identifying patterns or correlations that would be
impracticable to ascertain otherwise.
Other potential AI
benefits include more accurate, lower-cost, and faster underwriting and
expanded credit access for customers who may not have obtained credit under
traditional credit underwriting approaches. AI applications may also enhance the ability to provide products and services with greater customization.
ready for artificial intelligence?
Does a financial
institution have adequate processes in place to identify and manage the potential risks
associated with AI? I don’t think so, certainly not at this early stage of AI
development.
Many of the risks
associated with using AI are not unique to AI. For instance, using AI could
result in operational vulnerabilities, such as internal process or control
breakdowns, cyber threats, information technology lapses, risks associated with
using third parties, and model risks, all of which could affect safety and
soundness protocols.
The use of AI could
also create or increase consumer protection risks, such as risks of unlawful
discrimination, unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices, or privacy
concerns.
We may know some known-known
risks and benefits.
But we simply do
not know the unknown consequences.
And therein lies
the test of time!
As Banquo said to
the witches in Macbeth:[vi]
If you can look into the seeds of time,
and say which grain will grow and which will not,
speak then unto me.
Jonathan Foxx, Ph.D., MBA
Chairman & Managing Director Lenders Compliance Group
[i] Ready or Not, Self-driving Semi-trucks
are Coming to America’s Highways, Thadani, Trisha, March 31, 2024. The
Washington Post
[ii] “Structured data” generally refers to a
set of data that has been systematically organized or arranged.
[iii] “Natural Language Processing” (“NLP”)
generally refers to the use of computers to understand or analyze natural
language text or speech.
[iv] The term “chatbot” generally refers to
a software application used to conduct an on-line chat conversation via text or
text-to-speech, in lieu of providing direct contact with a live human agent.
[v] “Alternative data” means information
not typically found in the consumer's credit files of the nationwide consumer
reporting agencies or customarily provided by consumers as part of applications
for credit.
[vi] Macbeth, Act 1, Scene 3